Observers issue serious warning: Suspend Isles election rerun

With seven weeks to arrive at the Isles polls rerun, the European Union (EU) and the United States move to condemn the act, political analysts says the country is likely to face sanctions resulting from the polls impasse.

Already the US had denied the country over Sh1trn (US$472.8m) in Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) grants owing to the impasse and the Cybercrimes Act, 2015.

In the social media yesterday a debate raged with contributors expressing their fear over sanctions that may be imposed by the US   and European states.

This resulted from one contributor claimed there was speculation about the US considering imposing more direct sanctions on Tanzania, but The Guardian on Sunday could not verify that information, nor reach the US Embassy in Dar es Salaam as Saturday is not a working day.

Despite such concerns from the social media contributors, experience shows that the political impasse in Zanzibar has never attracted sanctions from major global powers despite unending wrangles from 1995 through to 2010.

However in separate interviews with The Guardian on Sunday, analysts said the country should get prepared for sanctions in a few months to come if the government fails to retract its decision on the polls rerun.

They said such a decision is also likely to lead the country into civil disturbances, calling upon the government to be more caution over the Isles political impasse.

Dr Azaveli Lwaitama, a political analyst, told The Guardian on Sunday, that  international communities are worried by the increasing threat of violence that would severely disrupt peace in the Isles.

“The international communities are aware that Zanzibar is peopled by Muslims in majority. These are people with contact persons in Arabs nations,” he said.

“Apparently the worry is that is they could seek help from such nations. We have to be ready for a troubled state similar to Somalia.”

Dr Lwaitama asserted that there are signs the incumbent president in Zanzibar Dr Ali Mohammed Shein was not feeding President John Magufuli with actual information on the ground.

The move has led Dr Magufuli not taking further actions, he noted, elaborating that already some fliers have started being circulated in Zanzibar urging people not to vote, or any other actions.

Renatus Muabhi, secretary general of CCK in his observations said Zanzibar is facing a democracy crisis which has seriously affected rights of the people.

He said the situation in Africa during general elections is clear to international communities and it clearly indicates that we’re in another trouble situation, politically, socially and economically.

“We depend much more on aid and other supports from the US and EU as communities … their statement shows we ought to face more sanctions from these powerful states,” he said, noting its unacceptable seeing the country into conflict just because of protecting two or so individuals in high office.

In his opinion, Prof Abdullah Safari argued that the world has changed and it is clear the international community is ‘smelling’ massive human rights abuse that can push thousands to become homeless and/or be killed.

“The only option is for the government to suspend the re-run elections.”

It is clear leaders are not worried of facing the International Criminal Court (ICC) he said, pointing out that what happened after the 2001 general elections will be totally eclipsed in terms of what will happen if the 2016 re-run polls in Zanzibar are maintained.

He said failure by the Civic United Front (CUF) and other opposition parties to participate in the elections puts the security of the East African nation into jeopardy.

Hardlyl seven weeks before rerun elections in the semi-autonomous Island, a worrying trend has emerged and political analysts say there is likely to be gross breaching of human rights and civil violence if the government sticks to its guns.

Analysts say early warnings by the international community, including the United States and the European Union (EU) should serve as a wake-up call to the government to revive peaceful dialogue over the election wrangle hitting the Isles.

A statement issued in Dar es Salaam this week by the envoys strongly criticized the re-run elections amidst ongoing dialogue.

The Zanzibar Electoral Commission has scheduled March 20 a second round election after nullification of last year’s councilors’, representatives and presidential polls by ZEC chairman Jecha Salim Jecha.

For two months Zanzibar has been in a political impasse and mediation talks between the CUF opposition party and the ruling CCM remained deadlocked.